The 2050 blog

Welcome to the 2050 blog. In the blog we tell you what we think is exciting right now, from our horizon. Personal, involved, and with each writer's own responsibility.

Climate change at the top of the risk list

Sometimes I wonder if world leaders really understand the risks in the world. I ask myself the question because I sometimes feel dystopic: Where are the decisions that save the world? As I said, it is short, short moments of this "dystopia-sickness". World Economic Forum's (WEF ) annual Global Risks Report usually remind me, that world leaders do see and understand the risks.

Climate change peaks when the WEF ranks the largest risks to the world. For eleven years, the WEF have developed a global risks report (first report came in 2006). A total of 750 experts and decision-makers have ranked 29 risks that are threats to the world stability.

With the term global risk the WEF means an uncertain event or condition that can cause significant negative impact in many countries and industries over the next 10 years. Global risks are serious because together they affect the world economy and the ability to work.

Climate change, the failure to mitigate and adapt to climate change, has during the past three years been one of the top five risks. This year, climate change peaks as the greatest risk for the coming years, along with large-scale involuntary migration. These risks are rate higher than such as water crises, energy price shocks, financial crises and international conflicts.

The links between climate change and the refugee crisis, are also brought up in the report. We all know that Syria suffered from mutliple years of drought, which increased the pressure in the society.

The 750 policy makers and experts have also considered the relation between risks, to see how they correlate or are interrelated. They see major effects of climate change, in terms of huge negative impact on water availability, with consequent effects of conflicts and thus migration. The report also indicates that climate change could jeopardize food security and agricultural production in some areas. The most climate-vulnerable countries are often totally dependent on the agricultural products for their economies, but in recent years the climate sensitivity appeared in G20 countries (India, Russia and the United States) that are major producers of agricultural commodities.

The 11th edition of the WEF global risks report makes it even clearer that the risks are imminent and with increased large-scale consequences on the realtions between countries. For example, this has resulted in the largest number of refugees since World War II.

In the conclusions, the WEF writes that we must reduce emissions, adapt and build resilience against these effects. Hence, it is essential to build sustainable, resilient growth strategies and stable societies.

As I see it, the WEF global risks report is trying to send the following messages to us from a climate perspective:

  • Climate change is here and it affects our communities the most, it is the biggest risk we have to deal with today.
  • There is a link between climate change and more refugees in the world.
  • Climate change affects our daily livelihood; agricultural production needs to be ensured.

I want to see these three points on the political and the economic agenda. I don't think there is enough discussion about this today among our policy. When was the last time you heard the political leaders highlight these risks and these interrealtions? There are companies that highlights this and who see the risks to their businesses, but I have not yet seen the Swedish industry associations (svenska branchorganisationer), such as the Confederation of Swedish Enterprise (Svenskt Näringsliv) describe what the the risks mean for the Swedish society and for Swedish businesses. We need to introduce the risk perspective and the opportunities that comes with it, in Sweden. So do not miss the opportunities presented now!

Nina Ekelund, 2050

Published on Monday 25 January, 2016

Lunch while waiting for the agreement

Few speeches are as moving as the one Fabius, the president of the Climate conference in Paris, held only moments ago. The applause were thunderous, the diplomats cried and even the interpretor sniffled and his voice trembled. I was also moved, but the question remains - where is the agreement text, and how does it look?

This blog enrty is only available in Swedish. Read it here.

Published on Saturday 12 December, 2015

New draft agreement

A lot is happening right now at the climate conference in Paris, and it is developing quickly, so this will be a brief analysis in bullet form.

Tonight a new draft agreement was presented. It includes far fewer brackets than previously, reflecting a greater consensus to the extent the countries agrees with this. That will be revealed the next few hours.

This blog entry is only available in Swedish. Read it here.

Published on Friday 11 December, 2015